SITUATIONAL AWARENESS

SITCHY is a research desk. We publish theses, we maintain a terminal, and we hold views with a level of confidence that our track record does not support.

Virtually nobody is pricing in the possibility that a raccoon-level amount of financial literacy could outperform traditional risk management. We believe this is incorrect. We have not tested it. We are publishing it anyway, because the alternative is testing it.

The next decade will be defined by compute, capital, liquidity, leverage, and knowing when you are completely fucked. Most published work covers the first four. We have decided to specialise in the fifth, on the grounds that it is the only one that has ever actually ended anything.

What is here

The thesis is a long document about the decade ahead, with charts. It contains five orders of magnitude, four of which are activities rather than quantities. Risk management is our policy page. It is one page long and it is not enough.

The terminal is real. It pulls live prices from public market data and computes a Situational Awareness Index from them, showing exactly which inputs it has and which it does not. The simulator is also real, and it is the most useful thing on this website: it will show you the precise percentage move that removes a levered position from your control. For a 4x long, it is about 24.6%. Most people guess much higher.

We are not going to convince you

If you need a pitch, you are not the audience. The pitch is on every other coin’s website, underneath the roadmap, above the section about the ecosystem. We have a terminal that admits what it doesn’t know and a simulator that will tell you the exact percentage at which your position stops being yours. That is the entire marketing department.

Could it go to zero? Obviously. So could the fund that lost $30 billion, and they had a 165-page thesis, a Bloomberg terminal, and a risk committee with more than one person on it.

This is a parody of the format of serious investment research. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or associated with any real person, fund, or publication. Every analyst named on this site is fictional. Any resemblance to real investors is purely situational.

Use your situational awareness. The token page →